Thread: How much will unemployment go up tomorrow?

There is no way it goes down, so how much will they fudge the numbers?

I predict 9.2%

Originally Posted by CSA

There is no way it goes down, so how much will they fudge the numbers?

I predict 9.2%

It could go down since the figure counts the people who qualify for benefits. Once you no longer qualify becasue you've been unemployed for long enough they don't count you any more.

Maybe that's the job plan, once enough people have been unemployed for long enough we might get back down to 5% unemployment, it'll be an Obama miracle.

I predict it will not go down anything significantly until we curb unemployment payments. This is strictly my opinion, but I would be willing to bet that the majority of the unemployed are not top wage earners and unemployment benefits probably are not much different numerically from what they earned being employed and as long as a large percentage of these folks can get a check in the mail than they will not look nearly as hard if at all for a job at least until the unemployment check quits coming in. My opinion on this comes from several people that I know who are currently unemployed. For me to say that a large percentage of these individuals are like what I described is strictly my opinion, I don't know that for sure. Unemployment, should never have been extended as long for some as it has been.

According to Gallup it will go to 9.1%
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Up in August

Originally Posted by CSA

There is no way it goes down, so how much will they fudge the numbers?

I predict 9.2%

9.3 maybe? The numbers are already fudged. It's closer to 16% Though a strike finished recently.

Probably not that much either way. If anything the numbers will continue to be skewed by under employment, those dropped out of the system, and so forth.

Good points Sluggo and Buck.

How come we can't find common ways to Define stuff? Do people (politicians and media, mostly) do this on purpose? As far as unemployment, I get so confused when one side talks of underemployed, unemployed and no longer looking, unemployed by choice, etc etc and everyone skews numbers and facts to try to make their own Ideology seem like the correct one.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but I have recently refused to engage in discussion or debate with anyone from any side, that does not provide numbers, data, and definitions of terms.

Unemployment is one category with the worst definitions. Needy is another that I can't find a definition that any 2 people can agree on, as well as, fair or equal. The subject that the most liberties on loose definitions are taken is with Taxes. This group pays more than this group---is a common claim, but more what? More as a group in dollars? or percent? percent of what? AGI, Taxable Income?

I sure would like to join a conversation with well defined terms, verifiable numbers and good sources, then maybe we could find some common conclusions.

It won't be good whatever it is...

Originally Posted by Angamuse

Good points Sluggo and Buck.

How come we can't find common ways to Define stuff? Do people (politicians and media, mostly) do this on purpose? As far as unemployment, I get so confused when one side talks of underemployed, unemployed and no longer looking, unemployed by choice, etc etc and everyone skews numbers and facts to try to make their own Ideology seem like the correct one.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but I have recently refused to engage in discussion or debate with anyone from any side, that does not provide numbers, data, and definitions of terms.

Unemployment is one category with the worst definitions. Needy is another that I can't find a definition that any 2 people can agree on, as well as, fair or equal. The subject that the most liberties on loose definitions are taken is with Taxes. This group pays more than this group---is a common claim, but more what? More as a group in dollars? or percent? percent of what? AGI, Taxable Income?

I sure would like to join a conversation with well defined terms, verifiable numbers and good sources, then maybe we could find some common conclusions.

I tend to look at the U6 numbers. Which bls also publishes, but never reverences.

Why? Because they're bad, much worse than the "official" numbers.

Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate

Originally Posted by CSA

There is no way it goes down, so how much will they fudge the numbers?

I predict 9.2%

I'm betting it goes above 10%. That is if they're honest.