Thread: The Jobs Speech

This wasn't a speech as much as it was an Obama 2012 infomercial. That was the tone that he used... including repeating his 'pitch line' "Pass this bill!" over and over. (might as well have been: 'Set it and forget it!') The only thing missing was the free George Forman grill if you order before midnight.

After that the 'substance' of the proposal falls into five parts:

Sop to the public sector unions (to keep dues flowing and thus contributions flowing)
Sop to the construction unions (to keep dues flowing and thus contributions flowing)
Construction for projects in key mid-west swing states
A tax cut that nobody will use
A tax cut that people will save

So... crap.

That's all it is... that's all it ever was going to be.

Originally Posted by Danny

It doesn't change the fact that the low interest rate on treasury notes is indicative of how much more you can borrow in the short term with no problem. People know you can pay it back with very little effort down the road where nobody suffers and nobody has to pay $6K/year more in medicare costs or abolish their social security. You just need to adopt a more progressive tax structure to do it.

Danny, we borrowed more than the entire GDP of your country just last year. The cost of servicing our existing debt is enormous, and rising rapidly. We just cannot afford more debt.

Bottom line - we don't have the money, and we cannot afford to borrow more.

Yes, I know, you disagree. That's because there is no down side for you - you've no "skin in the game" and your liability for this ever increasing debt is holding steady at 0.

Matt

Originally Posted by Danny

It doesn't change the fact that the low interest rate on treasury notes is indicative of how much more you can borrow in the short term with no problem. People know you can pay it back with very little effort down the road where nobody suffers and nobody has to pay $6K/year more in medicare costs or abolish their social security. You just need to adopt a more progressive tax structure to do it.

Yes, we are in the midst of an incredible bond bubble. Borrowing from the idiots who believe that loaning money for ten years at less than 2% when inflation is greater than 3% (officially, much higher in realty) would be easy. People believe that we "can pay it back with very little effort", but what people believe isn't always reality.

The reality is that there is definitely going to be economic suffering - lots of economic suffering. The only question is who is going to suffer the most.

Originally Posted by CYDdharta

Family, community charitable organization, welfare as a last resort. Isn't that what welfare is for, for people in hard times who have no where else to turn? There's no excuse for someone who couldn't find work during Obama's entire first (hopefully only) term in office. Will they be underemployed? Almost undoubtedly, but that will still be better for them and for the country.

There's a whole lot of valid excuses.
*There is 1 job opening for every 5 unemployed people, that's a pretty significant excuse.

*Many employers will simply not consider anyone who has been unemployed for 6+ months as their job skills have gotten rusty, another damned good excuse.

*Many employers are also attempting to conform to specific diversity standards, you don't meet those standards, you don't get a job (some employers do hold a position open and unfilled until they have gotten enough applicants of diverse background as corporate policy demands they do so), again what is the unemployed supposed to do in that case?

*Many employers simply will not hire older more experienced workers as they fear they will move on to another position too soon after being hired, is suppose an applicant could simply provide a prospective employer with no resume and not report their age but that doesn't look like it would work does it?

*The massive number of applicants has also caused many a firms HR screening process to dump anyone who isn't an almost perfect fit even if they would otherwise certainly be a good enough fit to move on to an interview.Don't get past the HR screening process, no job for you.

* The unemployed also aren't just competing with other unemployed they are also competing with everyone who's underemployed and everyone else looking for a new job.

It's not the same job market of 20, 10 or even 5 years ago. It takes more than gumption it takes an actual opportunity to be hired.

I'm not arguing people shouldn't move off of unemployment, they have to, despite the critics claims unemployment is absolute crap in funds.

The speech was a big hit... DOW down 275 mid-morning

Ooppps... make that 300 points...

I didn't hear anything in the speech or see anything in the various summaries about what he intends to do about illegal immigration. That, if controlled, would save us a lot of money AND open up some jobs to citizens.

Originally Posted by tsquare

The speech was a big hit... DOW down 275 mid-morning

Ooppps... make that 300 points...

More importantly, look at that beautiful (to a bear) head and shoulders top formation since early August: 11,500, 11,750, 11,500, and away we go.



(Not investment advice.)

Commodore
He was brimming with frustration last night, throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes that something will stick.

You are confusing frustration with desperation.

Danny
This is the false narrative that is killing you. You DO have the money. How much is a ten year treasury note: 1.98%. Do you know what that means? That means people are more than happy to lend American money because they are sure they will get repaid. You can borrow more in the short term with no problem whatsover. You need to fix the jobs crisis first then the deficit crisis later. The GOP want cuts now because it will hurt jobs and they have no interest in creating jobs until a Republican is president and they can claim credit for it...

...It doesn't change the fact that the low interest rate on treasury notes is indicative of how much more you can borrow in the short term with no problem. People know you can pay it back with very little effort down the road where nobody suffers and nobody has to pay $6K/year more in medicare costs or abolish their social security. You just need to adopt a more progressive tax structure to do it.

.

Except only a complete fool thinks that money we are borrowing is "in the short term". When you have long-term debt and deficits growing as far as the eye can see, the CURRENT rates don't matter as much as the risk that in future years when that debt will have to be rolled over, it will be at much higher rates.

Republicans ought to paint this proposal as what it is, in part Obama desperately raiding funds from Social Security which are needed for the program to be even remotely solvent for future beneficiaries to try and buy some short term, illusory growth to save his political prospects.

Finally, that you are discussing the BORROWING costs shows that we do NOT have the money, we have to BORROW it.

This country is, and is projected to spend an economically detrimental amount of money. PERIOD.

Originally Posted by Danny

This is the false narrative that is killing you. You DO have the money. How much is a ten year treasury note: 1.98%. Do you know what that means? That means people are more than happy to lend American money because they are sure they will get repaid. You can borrow more in the short term with no problem whatsover. You need to fix the jobs crisis first then the deficit crisis later. The GOP want cuts now because it will hurt jobs and they have no interest in creating jobs until a Republican is president and they can claim credit for it.

Sorry, Danny, but borrowing is not "paying for it", it is going into debt. His statement implied rather clearly that the money is there now....which I am pretty sure is an "exaggeration".

Just curious. How does building highways and bridges fix the unemployment problem? Most of that work is union, which is fine, but is usually allocated to senior people. So it would seem to me that all this will do will give more work to people already employed or those who have been unemployed the least amount of time.
As for teachers, isn't that creating a long term debt? School enrollments continue to decline. Teachers in most states obtain tenure rather quickly and cannot be fired or laid off. So, isn't he creating a huge problem down the road? Imagine teacher/student ratios of one to ten....
The only realistic part of this is tax breaks for companies who hire long term unemployed and veterans.
But extending unemployment defeats that. Why would anyone accept a low paying, entry level job when they can lay around and drink beer on government dole?